Nuclear Negotiations

Juan Cole throws cold water on Iran nuke threat; police chief warns protesters

Over at Informed Comment, Juan Cole wants everyone to breath deeply and think about whether Iran's latest nuclear announcement is really that threatening. Cole called "bizarre" remarks made on Sunday by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who equated Iran and North Korea as both being "nuclear-armed" and "a real or a potential threat":

The US intelligence establishment continues to doubt that Iran has or wants a nuclear weapons program. Tehran does have a nuclear enrichment program, which is permitted by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran allows United Nations inspections of it nuclear facilities. Although Iran is not as transparent as the UN International Atomic Energy Agency would like, there is no dispositive evidence of a weapons program. For the Secretary of State to frame Iran as she did is just muddled or dishonest.

Peace Processing

Condemning the House of Jonathan

The entire Israeli government is locked in a heated debate over Beit Yonatan -- the "House of Jonathan" -- a seven-story building housing eight Jewish settler families in the mostly Arab neighborhood of Silwan in East Jerusalem.

The building is funded by Ateret Cohanim, a right-wing settler organization, and named after Jonathan Pollard, an American serving a life sentence for spying for Israel. And it's illegal: It was built without a permit in 2004.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Today in AQAP: Jihad with a chance of Awlaqi

Anwar al-Awlaqi, the Muslim spiritual leader who leaped into the news following revelations of his contact with Ford Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan, gave a rare interview to Al-Jazeera over the weekend in which he laid out his support for attempted Christmas Day airline bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab but said he did not personally order Abdulmutallab's attack.

Meanwhile, an audiotape posted on a jihadi forum, purportedly from the deputy commander of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Sa'id al-Shihri, called on Muslims in the region to "attack and eliminate" American and "Crusader" interests everywhere, according to the BBC.

The Goldstone Report

This week in war crimes

United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon can't say whether Israel and the Palestinian Authority are on the right track when it comes to investigating the Goldstone Report's conclusions.

Israel and Hamas, you'll remember, last month released preliminary results of their investigations. Neither was particularly convincing: Hamas absolved itself of any wrongdoing, and Israel rejected most of Goldstone's findings.

Nuclear Negotiations

Iran's nuclear program isn't about the Palestinians

I'm a big believer that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have ripple effects throughout the region. It will increase the chances of peace between Israel and its other neighbors (Lebanon and Syria); it will take away a major terrorist recruiting tool, and a distraction that oppressive regimes use to avoid discussing their own problems.

But when I hear things like this, from Jordan's King Abdullah, I cringe.

Peace Processing

Reports: PA close to accepting "proximity talks"

The Palestinian Authority either accepted George Mitchell's proposal for "proximity talks," or is close to accepting, according to Israeli and Arab news outlets.

Ha'aretz reports today that Mahmoud Abbas "agreed in principle" to the talks, according to unnamed Palestinian sources. The talks will reportedly resume later this month, with Mitchell ferrying messages between negotiating teams in separate rooms.

Muslim Brothers

Egyptian police arrest 13 Muslim Brothers, including Mahmoud Ezzat

Egyptian police arrested 13 members of the Muslim Brotherhood (عربي) -- including Mahmoud Ezzat, the organization's deputy leader -- in overnight raids in six provinces.

The raids targeted homes in Cairo, Giza, Alexandria, Assiut, Sharqiyya and Gharbiyya governorates. In addition to Ezzat, police also arrested two members of the Brotherhood's guidance council, Essam el-Erian and Abdul-Rahman el-Bir; three members of the Brotherhood's administrative office in Alexandria; and several writers and professors with ties to the group.

Iraqi Elections

The Ba'ath ban is back, for now

Iraq's "four presidencies" -- Jalal Talabani (the president), Nouri al-Maliki (the prime minister), Ayad al-Sammaraie (the parliament speaker) and Midhat al-Mahmud (the head of the judiciary) -- convened for a meeting yesterday. Details of the meeting are scarce, but the group agreed to overturn last week's appeals court decision which overturned the de-Ba'athification decision.

I'm a little unclear on what legal authority they're exercising -- but then this whole sorry de-Ba'athification affair has operated in a legal gray area.

NYT public editor: Bronner should be reassigned

The New York Times' public editor, Clark Hoyt, thinks Ethan Bronner should be reassigned from the paper's Jerusalem bureau for the duration of his son's service in the IDF. He bases his recommendation mostly on avoiding the appearance of bias -- rather than any actual bias in Bronner's reporting.

The paper's editor, Bill Keller, disagrees:

It is, in addition to those things, a sign of respect for readers who care about the region and who follow the news from there with minds at least partially open. You seem to think that you... can tell the difference between reality and appearances, but our readers can't. I disagree.

Not to turn this into a media criticism blog, but I agree with Hoyt -- and with Evan, who wrote about Bronner last month.

International arms firm will plead guilty in case with Saudi ties

BAE Systems, a multibillion-dollar defense contractor based in England, announced on Friday that it would settle a long-running corruption investigation brought by the U.S. Department of Justice, which had been looking into allegations of corruption and bribery connected to several arms deals, including the roughly $67 billion "Al-Yamamah" contracts with Saudi Arabia initiated during the mid-1980s.

BAE will pay a $400 million fine to the DOJ and around $46.8 million to the British Serious Fraud Office, which was the first to investigate the deals but controversially dropped the case in 2006, after Saudi Arabia reportedly used its intelligence on Al-Qaida as leverage to force a halt.

Nuclear Negotiations

More nuclear posturing from Ahmadinejad

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking Sunday at the Exhibition of Iran Laser Science and Technology.
During a speech on Sunday, Ahmadinejad ordered the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency to figure out how to enrich the country's uranium to a more easily weaponized level. Some doubt that Iran even has the capability to carry out such enrichment, but the country's leaders likely hope that Ahmadinejad's remarks will give them leverage in negotiations with the West.

Helmand Surge, Take 5

Strategic communications, Taliban-style

ISAF and Afghan soldiers on patrol in Helmand province last year. (Photo: Flickr user combat.camera)
ISAF has spent months hyping Operation Moshtarak as the mother of all battles. But why is the Taliban talking up the Marja offensive? To draw ISAF further into a battle that's likely to be expensive -- and unlikely to lead to any major strategic gains.

War in Iraq

Blair at Iraq Inquiry: "Responsibility, but not a regret for removing Saddam Hussein"

Former British prime minister Tony Blair testifying before the Iraq inquiry commission on Jan. 29, 2010. (Photo: BBC)
Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair spoke on Friday before a British government panel convened to investigate the prelude, events and aftermath of the Iraq War. Blair held the line against mild inquiries from the panel and indicated that his decision to help remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein did not depend on the existence of weapons of mass destruction. He also warned that Iran poses a similar threat today.

The Afghan Surge

Talking with the Taliban

Taliban militants retreating from Musa Qala in Afghanistan in 2007. (AFP)
At next week's London conference on Afghanistan, President Hamid Karzai is expected to announce a formal process for many Afghan Taliban fighters to put down their weapons and reintegrate with society. An overarching State Department plan for Afghan and Pakistani stability released this month gives such a reconciliation high billing as a necessary condition for peace. Ahmed Rashid, writing in the New York Review of Books, details how such a process might play out and the obstacles lying in the way.

Drone Watch 2010

Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud likely injured in drone strike

A U.S. Apache helicopter engages insurgents in Afghanistan in 2009. (Photo taken from public domain Department of Defense footage.)

This entry is part of an ongoing series, Drone Watch 2010.

Hakimullah Mehsud, who assumed control of the Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan after the death of distant relative Baitullah Mehsud in August, was injured in a U.S. drone strike on Thursday, according to Taliban and American intelligence sources who spoke with CNN. The United States has launched drone attacks at a vastly increased rate since a suicide bomber killed seven CIA agents and injured six others in December.

Saleh offers dialogue with Huthis, al-Qaeda

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh told Abu Dhabi TV that 2010 would be a year of 'security, stability and peace' in Yemen.
Yemen's president said in an interview last night that he's willing to talk with armed groups in Yemen, including the Huthi rebels and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, provided they lay down their arms. But AQAP is almost certainly unwilling to accept his offer, and the Yemeni army continues to assault the Huthis.

Iraqi Elections

Report: De-Ba'athification decision overturned

Iraqi president Jalal Talabani at a press conference in Baghdad (file).
An Iraqi appeals court has overturned the de-Ba'athification commission decision that banned 766 candidates from Iraq's March 7 parliamentary election. The court's ruling does say that the once-banned candidates will be subject to judicial review -- for Ba'ath links -- if they win the election.

Drums of War

A repeat of summer 2006? Not likely

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Tensions are running high along the Blue Line: An Israeli minister said another war with Hizballah is only a matter of time, and the group is reportedly stockpiling rockets north of the Litani River. But the preparations seem mostly theoretical: Neither side seriously wants a war right now.

The Afghan Surge

Taliban launches raid in Kabul; gov't says 5 dead, 38 wounded

A shopping center, possibly the Froshga market, burns in central Kabul after the Taliban launched a commando attack in the city on the morning of Monday, Jan. 18, 2010.
Dozens of Taliban fighters staged a commando-style attack in central Kabul on Monday morning, detonating suicide bombs, throwing grenades and firing upon civilians and government workers. As of the early afternoon, security forces appeared to have suppressed the raid with relatively limited casualties.

Reconciliation in Iraq

Baghdad on edge: Lockdown and rumors of a coup

An Iraqi soldier mans a checkpoint in Baghdad in this file photo. (Photo: AP)
The city was placed under lockdown after a tipster told security forces that insurgents were planning to attack 'sensitive government targets.' The rumors of a coup are just that -- rumors -- fueled mostly by the British ambassador to Iraq's statement that Iraqi democracy 'is not a done deal.' Still, they highlight the political uncertainty in the country heading into the March 7 election.

War in Afghanistan

Lacking in Intelligence

The Memorial Wall at the Original Headquarters Building honors C.I.A. employees who have died as a result of their service.
There's much to be learned from the unprecedented Dec. 30 suicide bombing in Afghanistan that left seven CIA employees dead and six more wounded, not the least of which is the deadly serious necessity of maintaining base security, but the revelation with the biggest ramifications might be how much the American intelligence apparatus still lacks human sources within Islamist groups, and the trade-offs it will make to get them.