Quetta Shura

Baradar's arrest: Cutting off a conduit to the Taliban

I was off the grid all day, so I'm just now getting a chance to respond to the reports that the Afghan government was negotiating with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar when he was arrested by Pakistani and U.S. intelligence.

Karzai "was very angry" when he heard that the Pakistanis had picked up Baradar with an assist from U.S. intelligence, the adviser said. Besides the ongoing talks, he said Baradar had "given a green light" to participating in a three-day peace jirga that Karzai is hosting next month.

If this report is true, it basically confirms one of the two rumors about Pakistan's motives for arresting Baradar: The ISI wants to control Taliban reconciliation talks in Afghanistan, so it's going to round up "moderate" Afghan Taliban figures who are talking directly with Karzai and replace them with "extremists" loyal to the ISI (Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, come on down).

Iraqi Elections

Latest Iraqi election results: Karbala province

Update, 9:12 a.m.: IHEC just released numbers from the last four governorates (Dhi Qar, Kirkuk, Sulaymaniyah, and Wassit) still uncounted. We now have preliminary tallies from all 18 provinces -- though some are still less than 20 percent complete.

Original post: Another batch of results from Iraq, this time from Karbala province, where prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition has a roughly two-to-one lead over the Iraqi National Alliance. You can view the latest results here.

The Independent High Electoral Commission hasn't posted numbers from Kirkuk yet, but there are reports that Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition has a narrow lead over the Kurdistan Alliance. That would be a surprising outcome -- though preliminary results could oversample Sunni neighborhoods and therefore be misleading.

Department of Chutzpah

ADL, AIPAC continue march towards irrelevance

Abraham Foxman, the head of the Anti-Defamation League -- last seen using his position to attack noted anti-Semite Joe Biden -- now wants everyone to know that the main force undermining Middle East peace is the Obama administration's "flawed policy" and not, say, Israel's inflexible right-wing government.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Yemeni airstrike targets alleged AQAP members, kills two

An airstrike in Yemen's Abyan province killed two alleged al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula members -- at least according to Yemen's interior ministry. But there are reports in the Yemeni press (عربي) that the bombing actually targeted members of the Southern Movement. 

The interior ministry says the attack was carried out by the Yemeni air force (it's probably keen to dispel any rumors of U.S. involvement). Security officials say the victims were AQAP members, plotting to attack targets on the Arabian Sea (a claim we've heard before).

Iraqi Elections

EU's Stevenson alleges further voter fraud in Baghdad

Struan Stevenson, the president of the European Union's delegation to Iraq, complained on Friday about vote tampering, which he said boosted prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition at the expense of Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya bloc.

Stevenson's office sent us a press release this morning that contains further allegations of fraud, both before and after the ballot.

Lebanese-Syrian Reconciliation

Jumblatt to Assad: I'm sorry!

Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, says he didn't really mean to call Syrian president Bashar al-Assad a "savage" or "an Israeli product."

Jumblatt made those comments in February 2007, at a memorial service for the assassinated Lebanese leader Rafiq al-Hariri. At the time, Jumblatt was positioning himself as staunchly anti-Syrian; he blamed Assad for Hariri's murder, and fretted publicly that he too would be the victim of a Syrian car bomb.

Peace Processing

Petraeus: Israeli-Arab conflict endangering U.S. interests

Important story by Mark Perry this morning on Foreign Policy's Middle East Channel: Gen. David Petraeus, the head of U.S. Central Command, reportedly warned the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the White House that the Israeli-Arab conflict is endangering U.S. interests in the region.

Iraqi Elections

Latest Iraqi election results: Baghdad, Muthanna, Ninewa, Qadisiyah provinces

We've updated our Iraqi election results page with numbers from Baghdad, Muthanna, Ninewa and Qadisiyah provinces. Note that these are very preliminary results -- the Independent High Electoral Commission has tallied less than 20 percent of the ballots in each of these provinces. You can view the latest results here.

The Afghan Surge

Explosions in Kandahar leave dozens dead and wounded

Four explosions struck the southern Afghan city of Kandahar on Saturday night, killing at least 35 and wounding around 45, according to Al-Jazeera.

Three of the bombs appeared to be a diversion to a larger blast at a prison that had been targeted during a successful jailbreak two years ago, Reuters reported.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attacks and called them a "message" to NATO commanders who have announced an impending offensive in Kandahar this summer, similar to the just-completed operation in Marja.

Iraqi Elections

Follow the latest Iraqi election results

I put together a dedicated page for the latest Iraqi election results; we'll update this table whenever IHEC releases new data.

Peace Processing

Fallout from Biden's visit: West Bank sealed off; proximity talks appear stalled

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas greets U.S. vice president Joe Biden in Ramallah. (Photo: AFP)
As Joe Biden wraps up his Middle East tour, Palestinian officials say they're unwilling to move forward with proximity talks unless Israel cancels its new construction in East Jerusalem; and the Israeli Defense Forces have sealed off the West Bank for 48 hours, reportedly for security concerns. Several people were injured and arrested in fighting at the Al-Aqsa mosque this morning.

Peace Processing

Biden arrives in Israel amid serious Palestinian doubts

Vice President Joe Biden and his wife arrived in Israel on Monday.
As Joe Biden lands in Israel, the Israeli government -- obviously keen to demonstrate that it's serious about restarting peace talks -- announced Monday that it will violate its West Bank settlement freeze and build 112 new homes in Beitar Illit, a settlement west of Bethlehem.

Iraqi Elections

Campaigning stops, voting starts; scattered violence in Baghdad, Mosul

Iraqi policemen show their ink-stained fingers after voting outside a polling station in Najaf, 100 miles south of Baghdad. (Photo: Reuters)
Iraq's campaign season wrapped up today, 48 hours ahead of the election, as soldiers and medical personnel voted early. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers and police will be on duty Sunday for the general election, when millions of Iraqis will vote at some 10,00 polling centers around the country (and abroad).

Istanbul Intrigue

Turkey charges seven senior officers with plotting a coup

Gen. Ibrahim Firtina, the former head of the Turkish air force, in his office in 2003 (left) and arriving at the chief prosecutor's office for questioning last December (right).
Seven senior Turkish officers have been formally charged with plotting a coup against the government; several others, including former heads of the navy and air force, remain in custody. It's the first time the judiciary has directly accused military officers of trying to overthrow the government -- and an unexpectedly strong assertion of civilian control over the army.

Assassination in Dubai

Fake passports and Hamas fratricide: The latest on Mahmoud al-Mabhouh

This collection of images shows the people accused of killing Mahmoud al-Mabhouh (lower right) as they arrive in Dubai and enter Mabhouh's luxury hotel. (CCTV images courtesy Dubai police)
Israeli officials still largely haven't broken their silence on Mabhouh's murder, though Israeli journalists have basically concluded it was a Mossad hit. In Europe, officials are angry that the killers used fake British, Irish, French and German passports; in Palestine, Hamas officials deny that senior members of their own movement were involved in the assassination.

The Green Movement

Iran commemorates revolution anniversary; opposition clashes reported

A screenshot of BBC video showing crowds in Azadi Square, where President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke on Thursday. Foreign journalists were bussed to the square and not allowed to cover opposition rallies, Reuters reported.
As Iranians mark the thirty-first anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution, a large, peaceful crowd gathered to hear President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad deliver a speech in Azadi Square. Despite calls for protests from Green Movement leaders, we have yet to see reliable reports of the opposition crowd size, and photographs and video footage have yet to slip out of the country.

Iraqi Elections

Polls close in Iraq; media reports suggest strong turnout, relative calm

An Iraqi man on a bicycle displays his ink-stained finger after voting in Baghdad on March 7, 2010. (Photo: AP)
A handful of insurgent attacks around the country killed two dozen people, but Iraqi security forces seemed generally confident; the vehicle ban in Baghdad, scheduled to last all day, was lifted before noon. Anecdotal reports suggest a strong turnout across the country.

The Riyadh Conference

Saleh to GCC: We just need $44 billion

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah (right) receives Yemen's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, at Khoraim Gardens on Feb. 23. (Photo: Saudi Press Agency)
Gulf countries pledged roughly 10 percent of the $44 billion in foreign aid the Yemeni government wants to receive over the next five years. And the news was quickly overshadowed by violent rallies in southern Yemen, where police used tear gas and live ammunition on separatists and the government declared a state of emergency in one governorate.

Assassination in Dubai

Evidence of a Mossad connection deepens

This image, grabbed from CCTV footage at the Al-Bustan Rotana luxury hotel, shows a member of the alleged Mahmoud al-Mabhouh assassination squad checking into the hotel. (Image courtesy Dubai police)
Dubai's police chief says he has evidence -- credit card receipts and telephone records -- linking Mossad to the Mabhouh hit, but he hasn't offered much detail. The Sunday Times, meanwhile, claims in a lengthy report that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed off on the assassination. The Israeli government refuses to comment.

Operation Moshtarak

Slow going in Marja on day four, but Taliban are on the run

Thousands of American, Afghan and British  troops are participating in a heavily publicized NATO effort to retake the Taliban-controlled population center of Marja.
Operation Moshtarak, the heavily publicized NATO offensive against the Taliban "stronghold" of Marja in the southern Helmand province, entered its fourth day on Tuesday with scattered Taliban gunfights and more painstaking removal of improvised explosive devices.

Nuclear Negotiations

More nuclear posturing from Ahmadinejad

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking Sunday at the Exhibition of Iran Laser Science and Technology.
During a speech on Sunday, Ahmadinejad ordered the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency to figure out how to enrich the country's uranium to a more easily weaponized level. Some doubt that Iran even has the capability to carry out such enrichment, but the country's leaders likely hope that Ahmadinejad's remarks will give them leverage in negotiations with the West.